ACM Awards: Some Fairly Safe Predictions
Considering my dismal track record as a gambler, I probably have no business trying to predict the winners at tonight's (May 18) Academy of Country Music Awards. But having attended Saturday's ACM New Artists show in Las Vegas, I think I can go out on a limb and prognosticate in that division. My one caveat is that all awards are decided by the music industry are subject to politics and block voting. In other words, flaky things often happen at all awards shows.
Top new female vocalist: Taylor Swift. Were Swift not in the category, Kellie Pickler would stand a good chance because of her hit singles and the goodwill she has generated within the music industry. The other nominee, Sarah Buxton, is talented but hasn't had the high visibility that Pickler has enjoyed, and neither can claim Swift's quantity of hits and album sales.
Top new duo or vocal group: Lady Antebellum. Not to detract from their talent, but this one is merely the process of elimination. Carolina Rain is on an independent label and hasn't scored a hit single. The Wreckers had success at country radio and sold a lot of albums, but certain segments of the country music industry feel betrayed by Michelle Branch and Jessica Harp deciding to pursue solo projects after just one album together. They didn't bother performing at Saturday's New Artists show, and it would be a huge surprise if they win.
Top new male vocalist: Jack Ingram. This one is slightly more tricky to predict because the other nominees, Luke Bryan and Jake Owen, record for bigger labels. However, Ingram has had more success, and he also records for Big Machine, which also has Swift on its roster. That connection can't hurt. Above that, Ingram is talented and has paid his dues. He deserves to win.
The ACM's entertainer of the year award is being determined for the first time by fan voting, so the winner will be the one who is best able to activate their fans to vote. The Web sites for all of the nominees have been aggressively directing fans to vote for the entertainer of the year prize. My guess is that Rascal Flatts and Kenny Chesney are best prepared to deliver the votes, although Brad Paisley and Keith Urban each have an active fan base, too. At this point in his career, though, you wonder if George Strait is secretly hoping he doesn't win -- just so the shy, reclusive singer won't have to deal with the social discomfort of delivering an acceptance speech.
©2008 Country Music Television, Inc., a Viacom company. A division of
taylor says:
I am confused about the female vocalist winner. I thought it would be someone in the category that can has a good singing voice. Taylor Swift’s singing is terrible. She sings off key and is flat. She comes across as being very full of herself. I am really getting turned off to country music where the true talent and people who really sing good are overlooked by some girl with a bad singing voice and flips her hair around.
Debbie says:
I think that George Strait needs to win entertainer of the year. It’s his 56th birthday, 56th number one, what more could anyone want. George is the best and will always be the best
Katelyn says:
my question is about Garth Brooks? Is there like a special tribut to him tonight or something? They keep mentioning him? =S
bkb says:
please do not let it be swift. she cannot sing and her lyrics are getting to be a little too much for the adult who listens to country music.
Calvin Gilbert says:
Garth will receive the ACM’s Crystal Milestone Award for his career achievements. He’s also performing a medley of his hits.
Diane says:
I vote for George Strait, he’s the best.
Diane says:
I vote for George Strait, he’s the best. I sure hope he get’s all the votes, he deserves it, he’s worked so hard, not that the others have’nt but he is my favorite. He is real country, what country is all about.
Kelly says:
Scary…lotsa rock and that odd Sugarland disco beat thing tonight….George Strait seems the only real country guy left. I don’t get it….guess the flash sells.
Kelly says:
Oh my….right this second there is no pitch shifty device in the world that keeps Taylor Swift in key. I think she wants to be Avril Lavigne. Now she’s wet. This is so wrong.
Doug says:
Taylor Swift is not worthy of winning new female artist of the year award as she cannot carry a note without yelling and screaming. She is coming off as a very snobby and snotty person and every time her song comes on i have been turning off the radio and turn it back on when i think it is over..
Adam says:
I agree about Taylor Swift. I saw her perform live and it was terrible. I don’t understand how she became such a huge star. I know people don’t like Carrie Underwood, but no one can argue that she CAN sing. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same about Swift.
terri says:
I agree Taylor Swift cannot sing. She is just another teen who will end up on drugs or pregnant. We all know it! She has not talent and the industry is just using her up because we know creepy people like them young.
Jake says:
Cant believe Tug McGraw was rushed to the hospital, hope hes ok
Danielle says:
Taylor Swift is an AWESOME singer!! I don’t know what you are talking about because i saw her in concert and i thought she was spectacular. But, I guess everyone is entitled to their opinion!
Candace says:
I think Danielle is TOTALLY right!!! I LOVE Taylor Swift and think that she is totally amazing! I guess everybody has their own opinion.
Mari says:
I can’t believe the ACM’s blanked Tim McGraw and Faith Hill again. Are they another Dixie Chicks in your eyes or something?
Ricky says:
Man, yall are ridiculous. Taylor Swift is a great singer/songwriter and yall just can’t accept that the songs she’s making it big on now, she wrote when she was like 12 or 13 years old. I seriously doubt any of yall were doing anything like that at that age. Taylor is awesome! I thought the performance tonight was great, and I expect many more great things to come from her! Way to go Taylor. Keep up the GREAT work!!
fg says:
WTF!!! carry won another award ? this just shows the lack of taste in the general public nowdays . Can we say “finger nails accross a chalkboard ” this is carrys sound .
fg says:
Taylor should of cleaned house tonight , I am very sad from this lack of spotlight for her , She is awesome 150% .
funinthesun says:
I’m confused. Why would the country music industry feel “betrayed” by the Wreckers deciding to pursue solo albums?? I love country music, but the “industry” needs to grow up. It “acts” like it’s in high school waaaay too often. Johnny Cash betrayed it, the Dixie Chicks betrayed it, Faith Hill betrayed it, the Wreckers betrayed it. Grow up.
Jesse says:
Um Taylor sings great, her voice is not as powerful as carrie or martina but she has more to offer through songwriting and guitar playing . . .
Country Mama says:
Taylor Swift is perky, a great performer and a good songwriter, but NO she cannot sing and she should only win awards based on her songwriting and her performing, but not her singing. There are a million better singers in this town who are not blonde, and pretty who could sing rings around this girl.
Faith says:
Congratulations to all winners. So glad to see Carrie win Female Vocalist..she is an amazing singer. Loved her and Brad’s tribute to Eddy Arnold.
industry says:
I think the whole “industry being betrayed” thing has a lot to do with The Wreckers not being country artist when they started (both coming from the pop/rock genre and getting their feet wet as a duo in that market), and just as soon as we accept them, they check out. Just kind of flaky. As a person of the industry, I have no qualms about saying that, while she may not be the best singer, Taylor Swift CAN sing. Wait til you hear her unplugged in a room by yourself. Amazing. She’s a very talented, very humble young woman who deserves every bit of what she is getting. If other artists, i.e. Carrie Underwood, would use their talents in concordance with Taylor’s humility, the industry would be in a much better place. Yes, there is no doubt that Carrie can sing the phone book, but when you leave venue owners, managers, engineers, industry execs, and worst of all - fans - with a sour taste in their mouths from your diva attitude, the singing doesn’t matter. Carrie has the voice to be the next Martina McBride, but needs a serious slice of humble pie…otherwise, someone’s gonna knock her right off that high horse she’s riding on…
Sarah says:
As I was watching the show tonight, my mind kept drifting back to the song sung by George Jones “Who’s Gonna Fill Their Shoes” ? Country music, as my generation knows it is, for the most part, non-existant. I am thankful we still have Reba, George Strait, Charlie Daniels, Kenny Chesney and others, but what do we have left after this generation passes…the Taylor Swifts ??? The best part of the show was the tribute to Eddy Arnold…Brad Paisley and Carrie Underwood did a wonderful job. It makes me sad to see how far away we drifted from real “Country Music”.
Cougar says:
Industry if you think for a minute that anyone would believe you are in the “Industry” think again, you are way off base about Carrie, SHE is the one who could show Taylor some humility, Taylor is the farthest thing from Humble I have seen in many a year. She brags non stop about herself and has this fake “Oh My God” look and act that is beyond irratating. Carrie my friend is the real deal and she has such a humble, beautiful nature about her, all I have heard is wonderful things about her and how Sweet she is.
scarlett says:
I had the opportunity to meet Taylor Swift when she attended my high school Prom last month with one of our male students. She was very kind, so I don’t know where the snobby attitude people say she has is coming from. She is a very caring individual and deserved the award she received tonight.
DuneGirl says:
Who who who was the blonde girl sitting with Kenny Chesney?
industry says:
Thanks for your comment, Cougar, but I have been working in the industry for almost 13 years now. Opinions are just that, opinions. While I’m sure Carrie is nice with her friends, which you claim to be one of - but then say it’s just what you’ve “heard”, she hasn’t left a great impression with a lot of my fellow colleagues in the industry. I’ve heard of many occasions, and have first hand witnesses to incidents where she has complained about parking in the back of the parking lot at SIR, having to wait for her coffee at Fido, asking retail employees to “leave us alone and let us shop like any other person” when she was by herself. I could go on. Like I said, Carrie is a phenomenal singer, there’s no getting around that. In my opinion, she got too much too fast and needs to remember that these people who she complains to and about are the reason she’s famous.
And say what you want, but just because someone’s excitement over their accolades makes you “irritated” doesn’t mean they aren’t humble.
TR says:
I am thrilled that Taylor won! We saw her in concert and she put on a great show. No doubt, her voice isn’t as strong as Carries, but she definitely can hold her own and has more talent than just being able to hold a note. She certainly comes off as more humble than Carrie, that’s for sure. The one I am disappointed in is that Miranda won. Her music hasn’t done a thing on the charts and she didn’t deserve it in the least! I don’t know why the industry keeps trying to push her music when it is clear that after the many years she has tried to be the break-out artist like Carrie and Taylor, the fans obviously don’t want it. Give it a rest! And talk about not having a humble bone in her body… she comes off as such a full of herself cocky person. She has a lot of growing up to do. Congrats to Rascal Flatts as well and Garth too!
Chris says:
Taylor was awesome tonight. Great song, show, and how are you supposed to carry a note when you’re jumping around for special effects? I was impressed as I have always been with her. As for being “snobby or something else”, I can tell you have never met the young lady. Not to mention I love her voice- something special about it.
Keep kicking butt Taylor!!!
Vicki says:
Guys you don’t know Carrie if you call her a diva. She’s extremely shy. So she has to “force” herself sometimes. She is getting better! Watch her “Road to the Opry” and you’ll understand. AS for Taylor, she’s a sweetheart that would be the best ever if she’d continue with voice lessons. Miranda won best album for that fact it was the best album. People in the know gave it the country album of the year award. Rolling Stone said it was the best country album. This time the ACM’s didn’t go for sales, they went for true value. I thought they got it right, NTF for Taylor, TFV for Carrie and Album of the year for Miranda. BTW, I didn’t get Taylor’s performance and critics around the internet are calling it the most “awkward performance” of the night.
gordon says:
carrie was great ,swift was terrable, sugarland terrable and she should look in a mirror, reba did a great job, kelly pickler looked terrable
judy says:
wow,where did country music go? what was taylor swift thinking? did she think real country music fans wanted to see that? she cant sing,carrie underwood belongs in rock or pop rock,not country. she has no idea what country music is. sure do miss listening to real country music. dont even turn it on anymore,dont watch the videos,dont buy the cds.
judy says:
So glad Miranda won best album. She deserves it.
I like Taylor very much. Carrie should be pop and not country. Carrie’s performance of her latest song was horrible. Carrie is starting to shriek like Reba does.
Biggest dissappointment of the awards show, where was Alan Jackson???? Alan is the most country of all the artists, Alan and George Staight. Lets get back to awarding County songs, and singers. Not pop-like music.
Got very sick of hearing Stay, Radio played it over and over and over.
Again, the Highlight of the night was Miranda’s best album of yr. Go Miranda.
anthony says:
what has country muisc gone to? if that country to h with them.
Setheria Lebraber says:
Hello, I think your music rocks. I love you.
~Setheria~
Diane says:
The sound system was terrible at the program Sunday night. I’m surprised the singers will perform and risk sounding bad with that kind of sound system or technicians. Expect better.
Vicki says:
Diane thank you so much for posting that. I thought at one point that Carrie ran out of breathe for her singing just stopped in the middle. But then I noticed the next performer did the same thing only not quite as obvious. I think poor Rodney Aitkens was nervous. His hands were shaking and he was flat on his songs. But he kept his georgeous sincere smile and that is what counts.
music_fan says:
I would like to have seen other nominees for new male vocalist–Luke Bryan, Josh Turner, Jason Aldean, Gary Allan, Chris Young, Dierks Bentley. Jack Ingram has been around for years, I like his music, but he’s not “new”. Also, B&D for vocal duo was a surprise. Sugarland and MG had big hits this past year. As for EOTY, Kenny was voted/chosen…either way you look at it…don’t like it, but it is what it is. He wants to be like King George.
Shelly says:
I’m so glad Jack Ingram is finally getting noticed. He’s been touring in and around Texas for 15 years and he’s finally getting the recognition he deserves, as a true country singer…not pop, not rock, but country. Great to see Miranda win, too…whoever said she comes off as cocky, I just don’t see it. I’ve seen her play at festivals in Texas and she’s almost starstruck by Texas artists and just has a good time.
bkb says:
please diane don’t blame it on the sound system,these artists cannot sing live. bring back the performers that can put on good, country music.
Raise the Barn says:
First, for those of you who are all about “real country” music, the “tent” of the genre is a massive circus tent with LOTS of styles and variations going on at once, not some little “George Jones-ish” pup-tent that’s smaller than your SUV. Country is the the genre with the MOST variety.
Taylor Swift is 18, so maybe that accounts for her voice - not the quality of it (she CAN sing), but the feel. She’s a teenager and she has introduced a whole new “Emo” feel to country music. She’s writing songs from her life (very country), singing from her heart (very country), and working hard playing/singing wherever she can (also very country). I was happy she won - she’s made a big splash (literally!), and she wouldn’t be 3x platinum if her music wasn’t good.
Carrie has a totally different voice than Taylor, so you really can’t compare the two. Personally, I prefer Taylor’s voice and songs because I don’t like hours and hours of high-pitched long, loud notes. I saw her open for Keith Urban twice this year, and I felt I’d been yelled at for an hour each time. She’s more Celine Dion than Loretta Lynn. But her success during the time-period the award covered made her the most likely winner. Is she country? Not as much as Taylor, IMO, but no one’s listening to me, right?
I’m so glad Miranda finally won something! Go ‘Ran!
I think the reason some of these acts did outlandish performances was precisely BECAUSE the show was in Vegas. Those hotels/casinos are set up for all kinds of showy stuff! I thought Sugarland’s “fall” at the end of their performance (and their climb back up to giggle and wave) was really fun and delightful. Taylor was really working the teen angst in her hoodie, and then the watefall thing was great, and something that you really can only do in a place like Vegas (from a logistical standpoint). And just think of all the myriad country music videos that feature WATER - “Rainin’ on Sunday”, “More than a Memory”, “Bring on the Rain”… just to name a few.
Bottom line, I think there’s more room at the “Country Music” table for some of that “Southern Hosptitality” toward new ideas, and NO place at the table for that old, insular, “that ain’t country” attitude. There may have been a Murder on Music Row, but it was probably a mercy killing…..
bkb says:
swift is pitchy and carrie is screaming so please don’t make excuses for them.
bkb says:
was leann and brenda lee pitchey at their even younger age than l6? I don’t think so. Don’t you think maybe talent is where the problem is.
Mailby Bay Goergeman says:
bkb what are you talking about Taylor is a great singer and so is Carrie i mean hey if you were movin’ and grovin’ it would be a bit hard to sing too wouldnt it well taylor i love you
abc says:
Yall need to realize that Carrie Underwood is a total horror and if yall dont stop kneeling at her feet your guna regret it
bkb says:
i did not say that carrie was not a good singer. They would not be out of breath of they didn’t have to do all that jumping around to make their performanc more than what they are capable of. You know a lot of singers can stand still and have a great performance.
Mailby Bay Goergeman says:
BKB&ABC
I LOVE CARRIE AND YEA SOMETIMES THEY JUMP A LOT TO MAKE THE PERFORMUS COOL FOR THE VIEWERS SO YEA THEY WANT TO MAKE IS FRESH SO YEA UP AND ABC WHY YOU GOT TO BE SO MEAN I MEAN REALLY CARRIE IS NOT A HORROR WHAT THE HECK ARE YOU TALKIN BOUT WELL I DONT THINK NE ONE NEEDS TO BE MEAN TO CARRIE NE MORE GOT IT OKAY I AM SERIOUS NOW BYE
Jeanette says:
All I can say is the fan voting thing has got to go. If they want to keep it, have a separate award called ‘Artist with the Most Fans’ because that is what it translated to. Online voting doesn’t make you an Entertainer of the Year.
kim says:
Reba did more “jumping around” and dancing and put on more of a show in her day than any of these other girls…Taylor, Carrie, etc….and she never ran out of breath or got pitchy. And has held a sincerity and genuinnes about herself and carried herself with more class than any other…EVER!! Same for Leann Rimes…did you see her on the CMAs dancin’ her butt off?? If you can only sing on key standing still, then I suggest you stand still!… for example Martina McBride, Faith Hill, Trisha Yearwood… not everyone has to put on a show to be entertainment!! Taylor leaves a bad taste in my mouth and so does Carrie. I don’t think either one of them deserve female vocalist….Taylor is just too pitchy and I can’t stand Carrie screaming in my face all day! I don’t think either one of them should be classified “country”!!!!
kim says:
Oh, and by the way, the only reason Taylor is selling the way she’s selling is because EVERY 8 to 10 year old little girl in the country is driving their parents crazy to buy the cd!! Just like Hannah Montana!
BOb says:
Taylors singing at ACM was horrendous…nails on chalkboard…five stars way way down
Carriefan21 says:
All of ya’ll are just jealous!! Ya’ll know that Carrie Underwood and taylor Swift are amazing performers!!!! Ya’ll just want the old country back so you can feel young again. Yeah George Strait was good…back in the day but things change. Ya’ll go on and on about reba and she isn’t anymore country than carrie or taylor!!! She changed her music and thats why she is such a big star!!